Author: АЛЕШИНА АНАСТАСИЯ ЕВГЕНЬЕВНА | ALYOSHINA ANASTASIA
Introduction
Taking a serious approach to assessing the foundation of the current state of the topic of the "global world" under consideration, its accompanying globalization, based on the direction of research I have chosen, I systematically draw the appropriate conclusions: the paradigm of instability of modern human civilization under the pretext of international cooperation becomes equal to many collapses of the past, which are still reflected in the present. Many problems of the XXI century on a global scale still continue to be based on the domestic political course of the countries of the world, but with the use of more modernized technologies, through implementation in all spheres of society.
It is not difficult to determine that during the existence of only one generation, such powerful changes are taking place at the moment, which took whole centuries in the old days. Accordingly, it would be highly advisable to assume at what step from the technological breakthrough we are now. One has only to remember Neil Armstrong's first moon landing during the Apollo 11 mission. Then the concept of the Olduvai theory of industrial civilization appeared, representing the assumed scenario of the future development of events (points H-L) (Appendix 1). The model of development of our civilization can be continued with an unexpected leap, calling it the cyberindustrial era.
At the turn of the XX-XXI centuries, previously known problems were joined and joined by new ones, primarily related to the process of globalization. The attitude becomes unmistakable: [1] It is necessary to unite the efforts of all states, all peoples, public organizations and movements, all people in order to jointly avert existing threats. So currently there are a number of the following problems:
Environmental issues
The threat of thermonuclear war (the possibility of creating nuclear weapons in countries where aggressive forces are in power, prone to adventurism in foreign policy, is especially dangerous)
International terrorism
Overcoming the economic backwardness, poverty and misery of the "third world" countries
Socio-demographic problems
The lag in the development of methods for the treatment and prevention of the most dangerous diseases (AIDS poses many questions to humanity, and since the beginning of June 2023, the developing measles epidemic)
The problem of preventing the dangerous consequences of scientific and technological progress (using its results against humanity)
The danger of global accidents in industry, energy, and transport
Threats to culture, the spiritual development of society, and subsequently the world.
The topic of the global world and its problems will be relevant all the time, forming people's stable immunity to change. The variability of conducting international relations in the XXI century, the inclusion of new potentially competitively capable agents and actors, the appearance on the international arena of business players more adapted to the emerging priorities and, perhaps most importantly, the bifurcation of outer space as a single heritage of mankind – all these categories are indispensable in the demand of many elites and grassroots now. Since it takes decades to develop at least one potentially successful system, they will definitely remain in demand for many years to come.
The aim of the author of the research work is to reveal the progressive direction of the world order, considering the key aspects of international cooperation and geopolitical processes in 2050-2100 and the new agents and actors involved in their progress, taking into account the support in the economic balance, paying attention to national threats in the context of global problems in 2100. The author considers space exploration to be the most important component, as a global environment and the heritage of mankind on the threshold of the end of the XXI century. In the work, the author solves the following tasks:
Distribution of subsystems on a global scale, based on the development of new integration associations and TNCs
Heading East – Sino-Russian cooperation; BRICS & SCO
Turkey, Iran and Mexico become the leading powers; OMIT
Solving the problem of waging both regional conflicts and wars, taking into account the modernization of the armed forces
Forecasting the dynamism of the economic balance
Patterns of international business development; and what new coalitions will be created in this case;
The trajectory of the development of outer space on the international platform of technological progress
The emergence of new information waves of an established paradigm in space exploration; space as a global environment and the common heritage of human civilization or the transition to the stage of separation of business intelligence in the position of the "space race"
New concepts: geopolitical cyber technologies, AI-TNK, the process of metamodern international business, "space race", business intelligence, SDTrend (Sustainable Development Trend), OMIT, MEKOG, EASN, RAPV, "MP" EPS, ISKERIA.
During the data analysis, the following scientific hypothesis was formed: The author believes that in 2100 the global world will embark on the path of a multipolar device, as a result of which new processes in geopolitics will appear, rapidly developing "branches" of the Internet of 5G speeds contribute to the training of robots and AI to more complex digital and virtual tasks, expand their networks, thereby The goal of international space exploration will continue to evolve in the new technological paradigm of human civilization; The biomodality of international security in the context of national threats is being reformed by looming conflicts.
International relations and cooperation, geopolitical processes and new key agents and actors (countries, integration associations, transnational corporations, e-governments, etc.)
International relations, having become a key development stream of the modern globalist, based on the penetration of increasing financial influence into a huge fund, are the main factor in the sustainability of the global world. Even now, feeling the crisis of deglobalization, we understand that, also in the case of an imbalance in the political system, it is quite possible to switch to a new installation in the next 10 to 20 years. Observing the history of the development of statehood in any country, one can see that any area will need "restoration". It would seem that minor changes to the old order, and no more, but modernization (or digitalization), even in conditions of reformist sentiments, will become inevitable. Until the country embarks on the path of a "new" society and peace, it will be forced to experience the burdensome consequences of an outdated system.
As a rule, two main trends lead to renewal in the field of international relations: This is the economy, as a developing sovereign area based on TNCs, and the social area. So, in my opinion, international relations in 2100 may come to a crisis of hierarchical structures, which will be replaced by more flexible forms of interstate cooperation based on common interests and goals, as well as the desire to promote them through joint efforts. Virtual summits and conferences will become the norm, which will allow leaders to make decisions without the need for real flights and trips.
There is no doubt that political giants will be able to form in the future world, for example, in the coalition of the United States and China (given the current situation), but this is all under the same conditions of the formation of a multipolar world. But now it is quite difficult to believe about the emergence of such an association, since the interests of the two countries differ a lot, and their tasks in space exploration are quite extensive.
Cooperation. But, definitely, it is necessary to take into account the already existing configurations: BRICS and SCO. [2] Cradle magazine columnist Pepe Escobar previously noted their further development: "The expansion of BRICS to BRICS+, with Algeria, Iran and Argentina in the first wave and dozens of subsequent ones. They will prioritize trade in their own currencies, which will lead to the creation of an alternative currency that will be used by the BRICS+ countries, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).”
Is a system of altruism on the part of China possible in the future with its rapid pace of AI development? The starting point for the study of the Chinese approach to cyber sovereignty can be considered the First World Internet Conference in November 2014 in Wuzhen ("Wuzhen Summit"). The organizers of the conference outlined its main goal as follows: "An interconnected world, led and controlled by everyone, the creation of a cyberspace community with a common destiny." The conference was attended by more than a thousand representatives of world-famous Internet companies from more than a hundred countries (NetEase, Alibaba Group, Star Track, etc.).
It is known that China surpasses the countries of the world in terms of development by 30-40 years and by 168.7% in the production of robotics. His strategies are being read – world government, the creation of a planetary destabilization arch, the establishment of a financial dictatorship on a cyber development platform. Analyzing the data on the dynamics of our eastern partner in the field of AI, the question of two X's and Y's is brewing: or rather, the rule of “Physics and lyrics". The unstable balance that we can observe in the work of the human brain, whose hemispheres are responsible for two opposite sides: creative thinking and rational thinking, between which a person needs to build neural bridges – creator connections for more efficient brain work.
The concept of national sovereignty in 2100 will be able to transform, and countries will voluntarily give up part of their autonomy in exchange for the benefits of global governance. In this regard, the UN actor will become a central node, forming a platform for countries to cooperate and make collective decisions.
Geopolitical processes and new key agents and actors. In the year 2100, the global balance of power will undergo significant changes. Traditional superpowers, known to all of us: The United States and China will have to face increased dynamics from developing countries such as India, Brazil and Nigeria. While economic and technological advances are reforming our world, we can confidently expect a redistribution of power on the world stage.
[3] Geopolitics is one of the fundamental concepts of the theory of international relations, characterizing the place and specific historical forms of influence of the territorial and spatial features of the position of states.
Paying attention to the backcasting of events from the world of geopolitics of the 20th century, I can formulate the key processes of 2050-2100:
The increasing role of regional alliances
The progressive power of artificial intelligence against the background of global geopolitical processes
Environmental problems on the scale of a disaster
I believe that in 2100, it is regional alliances that will rise to the Olympus in shaping geopolitical dynamics, strengthening both economic cooperation and regional security stability. New technologies and that very breakthrough will determine the decisive interaction and competition of countries, such criteria will be: AI and robotics, renewable energy sources and even space exploration at long speeds (taking into account relativistic forces). Environmental problems will reach the point of no return, dragging with them geopolitical changes (geopolitical cyber technologies are no exception). To achieve a balance, we will have to recall and resort to the criteria of the old setting of the UN Climate Change Program.
New key agents and actors. The actors of global regulation, which now constitute the primacy, are usually called the following: transnational corporations (TNCs), the government, the head of state (not only individual politicians), the United Nations and the state. With the development of technology and the changing dynamics of power, new key agents and actors will have a significant impact on the world of 2100.
The heyday of artificial intelligence now will dramatically lead to a drastic increase in noise fluctuations, that is, the appearance of a special system before the point of no return, which will instantly disappear after this leap. Such machines of the new super generation will be able to work with huge amounts of data and predict the results.
[4] The transnational community is a leading actor in global processes. Financial structures that manage global processes and spread around the world have several levels. The highest level is the world financial center (IFC), the middle level is transnational banks (TNB), there are more than 1000 of them, the last level is national banks associated with transnational centers. With huge resources, TNCs, in turn, will move to direct cooperation with AI, probably due to this, AI-TNCs will be able to form – a special configuration of a political giant and hypertechnology. Such a force of interaction will be able to have an incredible impact on the public opinion of countries and political outcomes, through the use of data analytics, social networks and business corporations. Before talking about the future of integration associations, it is necessary to understand the concept of "integration alliances".
Integration alliances are agreements between countries or regions aimed at developing cooperation in various spheres of human life, including education, security and cultural exchange. I believe that thanks to integration associations in the world of 2100, we will be able to achieve the most delicate balance flowing into global cooperation. These unions will serve as a "fat layer" (in importance, similar to the middle class in society) in the economy and innovation, issues related to climate change. And it is quite possible that OMIT (a new key agent: the Unification of Mexico, Iran and Turkey), IECOG (the International Environmental Company of the United States) will appear.
E–government is a government that interacts with public authorities, society, and organizations in an electronic format with the slightest personal cooperation. There are currently 4 models of such governments:
The Continental European model
Asian model
The Russian model
The Anglo-American model
In the future of 2100, such ideas as: 1. division into two interacting camps (continental European and Anglo-American with Russian and Asian); 2. Interaction of all four models in creating a global system of sustainable development in an electronic environment, control over the international situation.
In the first variant, such modifications are likely as: EASN (Euro-American Surveillance System - EASS (Euro-American Surveillance System), and in the second variant: RAPV (Russian-Asian Cooperation Program), "MP" EPS (Moscow-Beijing Electronic Cooperation Program). But first of all, it is necessary to remember about the possible changes in the current situation, forming either a single global union: the IWOS (International Virtual Security Union), or a chain of separate virtual governments.
Consequently, the future alignment of forces and strategies in the field of international relations and cooperation will be in urgent need of unification, not only in the physical sense, but also in the information space. The emergence of more and more new actors and agents of the global world will entail completely new processes.
New players in international business and new coalitions - changing the economic balance, space as a global environment and the common heritage of mankind
The full power of international legal mechanisms today is aimed at guaranteeing a new business ethics and economic relations. Already at the moment, we can talk about the emergence of a new type of economy – nooeconomics. Such an economy is based on the application of a new socio-economic factor, which is developing as a tool for managing international business. Many of the world's leading countries have already crossed the threshold of a new level of financial management and accounting.
It should be understood that if human civilization reaches huge figures of 9 or even 10 billion people in the coming years, then many factories will need to be moved to extraterrestrial space. The first thing that will be required for the development of the space industry on such a scale is the development of orbital production stations and hubs operating through jet propulsion and space strings, at the expense of solar energy. Such integrated business models will be able to give most space powers the idea of creating a powerful coalition. But it is still difficult to talk about partial and complete colonization of nearby planets, although in 2100 with the development of technology, it is already real.
The technological revolution of space must go through all the steps of industrialization like the one that took place on Earth. And before we reach the stage of "flying cars" on Earth, we need to step over the information revolution, because not everything is so simple in the technological sphere, [9] as it is difficult in the economic one. We have a huge advantage right now – we only have to "adjust" the existing technologies and innovations to work in completely different conditions. With the help of unmanned aerial vehicles and interaction with AI, it will be possible to create processing and mining space stations.
The moon, in turn, is rich in Helium-3 reserves, its weak gravity can serve as a space elevator, as a starting point for a whole system of points or as a model of a transport service to the nearest planets.
[5] For example, the Japanese company N-Ark presented the Dogen City floating city project with tourist and medical facilities, as well as launch pads for space rockets. The city will consist of three separate zones: the habitat ring - the main residential area, an underwater data processing center that will be cooled by the sea and serve urban management and medical facilities, and the third - floating structures located in a bay inside the ring. According to the principle of operation of such a view of the city of the future, in a single balance of space exploration, it is possible to program a project for a space experimental city. The only significant drawback in this model will be the super–cost.
New MB players. Combining information cyber technologies and creating new technological waves of the paradigm will lead humanity to create business intelligence. This program will be able to monitor and predict the upcoming economic shocks on a global scale.
Space, as a single human asset in the coming years, will need a parallel analysis of the "dark side" of the digital future, which is so openly debated now. Thanks to the advent of the new 5G network, it is easier for people to learn the behavioral principles of robots and information technology. Due to this progress, we can easily design a transition to the stage of dividing business intelligence in the position of a "space race" in the near future.
New coalitions – changing the economic balance. In this case, the help of the world's economic elites will be needed, who will plan a special super-society for their circle, with a long-programmed technological and business scenario. Our world, in interaction with space, is supported by the work of millions of satellites. If you think about the loss of almost all space satellites, then this is a very real problem. The daily use of GPS systems can face a global crisis, because it is thanks to satellites that our synchronization through the use of space continues to develop.
It is possible that in the future of 2100, military operations in space, similar to footage from a science fiction film, will not be so exciting, but will pose a very serious threat to humanity. To reduce risks, the whole world will need to increase the flexibility of the information space, ensure a normal environmental situation in orbit, where a huge amount of debris has already accumulated (and the satellites themselves).
During the digital revolution, a grandiose scientific leap will take place, allowing the global coalition to compare the problems of the past and approach the problems of the future in a more planned way. Now, with the help of investments, you can manage the future, then you can imagine what kind of future would come today. By investing the investment fund not so much in the development of terrestrial network parameters, but in the space exploration of the Moon, Mars or even Venus, such strategic choices have contributed to people spending less time on the Internet.
Such spurts would lead us to create a huge cyberinformation interplanetary system. So the purpose of the space program of many countries is now determined by the ability of a person to ensure his long-term stay in outer space. You can come up with the idea of creating a huge ship capable of moving to other planets. Yes, it probably sounds like a new fantasy reality, but due to the investment of business elites, it can turn into a major scientific course. Similarly, the heavy industry of the Earth could be transferred to the space station, which would help save the energy resources of our planet.
[6] One has only to recall Elon Musk's mega-projects, such as SolarCity, SpaceX and others, as soon as the world faces new problems that slow down the implementation of future projects. Its main goal was to radically change the reduction in the cost of putting objects into low-Earth orbit. To apply innovations in projects that are not available for quick copying can attract potential investors upon the release of the plan.
And the synthesis of outer space with the functionality of the Earth is very likely, which can create a new environment "smart environment – space cybersphere", which will serve as an analogue to the familiar word "space".
International cooperation in space exploration
Cooperation with the BRICS countries in global outer space will move into the phase of a technological alliance in the next 20-30 years. Since space is now the highest priority area, therefore, such a coalition will be able to ensure the most sovereign technological balance. These factors influence the enormous development of the digital economy and electronic governments, new breakthroughs in the scientific environment, and are also an excellent lever in establishing cultural and religious ties with friendly countries.
According to the current trend in space exploration, the primacy of countries is distinguished: India, USA, China, European Union, Russia, Iran, Japan. By uniting in the future (at least in the field of space), they will be able to create a powerful corporation to achieve the goal of "space as the common heritage of mankind." It is necessary to be aware that such a distant field of knowledge cannot be conquered by only one country, because its forces and capabilities (financial accessibility) will not be enough. The symbiosis of the computer and human spheres in the future, the so-called "centaur intelligence" (hybrid), will become a pillar in this area. This way, the BRICS countries will be able to create a company no longer based on the lunar program, but on distant points of space, to discover new energy sources. The most important thing is not to go into the phase of the "iceberg of ignoring" when one of the powers decides to lead the championship.
In such a coalition of countries, the ISKERIA Corporation (according to the first letters of the countries) will be able to form – a new information and virtual platform-a coalition for the exploration and "domestication" of distant planets and the exploration of outer space. Thus, the changed economic balance of the global business system can become more dynamic and lead to very positive consequences when presenting space as a global environment and the common heritage of mankind.
Planetary networks are also quite a good idea, but very difficult to implement. They work like the Internet, only more efficiently and globally. The World Wide Web can also be connected to them, which will allow you to create a powerful supercomputer. Its controlled area is limited to three hypostases: terrestrial, near-earth and universal. Now we can only build a competent cooperation plan and calculate all the risks that may arise in case of a system failure. Such a step in the transformation of human civilization is very difficult to fully control.
[7] It is necessary to take into account a material of unusual properties (stronger than steel, a better electrical conductor than copper, and lighter than almost everything else with similar properties) – graphene. The pure form of the material can be of great benefit to the space industry. A group of scientists from the Italian Space Agency presented an article that examines the role of graphene in space exploration. According to the article, China, as a powerful space power, controls 71% of the world's graphene patents, and 8 out of 10 leading graphene research universities are located in the country. Time must pass before any achievements in the country will be more widely implemented in the space industry.
Therefore, I believe that space exploration within the framework of international cooperation can bring humanity a huge scientific base in the future, but still the main task should be sustainability – we must take responsibility for all actions so as not to harm other planets or outer space.
International security, national threats in the context of global problems, regional conflicts, wars, armed forces and weapons
International security. The issue of international security has always been one of the most important in the context of globalization. [8] Russian researcher of the structure of international relations T.V.Yurieva says: "ideas about ways to coordinate the national interests of states are the essence of concepts of regional, international, and global security, although these problems are not exhausted only by coordinating the national interests of states."
The global epidemic of the Covid-19 coronavirus has become a new offshoot of international security. When the majority expected a decline in world disagreements, everything turned out differently, exacerbating the conflict. In the 21st century, we must focus on the sustainability of cybersecurity as the main factor in the concomitant development of IT technologies and AI, subsequent events and threats may be caused not so much by military signs or a clash of interests, but by attempts by IT, GPT, UAVs, ICT and AI to create a truly fundamental challenge to the global world. All these criteria have made the world think about the formation of a new international security system.
The conflicts of 2100 will need completely new approaches to their resolution and settlement. Digital challenges around the world must be balanced into a single system, which we can monitor more effectively than a number of new offices.
National threats in the context of global problems.
To begin making a competent forecast, I suggest paying attention to the concept of "national security":
National security is one of the key factors in the division of international security, at a time when threats arise in a particular environment of society and the state, to ensure their stable identification and development.
[9] The modern world is exposed to a variety of geopolitical factors of the collision of the main centers of power. With the increasing number of progressive human evolution, we can identify the main national threats of the period 2050-2100, but do not forget that this is only a small part of the whole variety of threats awaiting their "awakening":
1. The progression of AI development
Artificial intelligence is gaining the upper hand in its development in the year 2100, problems arise in the field of privacy and human performance, leading to instant job cuts. Humanity still needs to understand the essence of the "primacy of the creator over the invention."
2. Cybersecurity under the pretext of digital warfare
A more serious global problem in 2100 is the war in cyberspace, where AI "feels" comfortable in its native environment, and humans are uncomfortable. Hackers will use this situation to their advantage, which will create a new global threat.
3. Global environmental crisis
Space exploration led to an environmental crisis in 2100, which had been in a precarious state until that time. The sphere of ecology entails not only natural factors, but also political and economic ones.
4. Increasing geopolitical tensions
Due to population growth (the threshold of 9 billion), the demand for vital resources has increased significantly: water, food, and energy. The crisis leads the world to new conflicts and wars, which is based on the geopolitics of countries (a time of difficult diplomatic relations).
5. Problems in the field of health protection
The modernization of the usual methods of treating the human body has led to serious genetically modified mutations, which has complicated the international situation. AI helps people in the field of conducting the most complex surgical operations. We will have to face a new epidemic by means of cybermutations.
With the development of each new innovation, we have a new risk factor. To solve the global problem, it is necessary to foresee the consequences of the development of national threats.
Regional conflicts.
With the strengthening of global interdependence, regional conflicts have also become politically "globalized". After considering the global theme of conflicts, it is possible to trace the same problems at the regional level: technological progress, climate change, geopolitical shifts. The issue of resolving regional conflicts is based on equipping the armed forces with the latest military technologies. Conflicts over resource availability will endanger the lives of millions of people in 2100 (the struggle for territory). Changing alliances and the emergence of new political players will lead to the emergence of new conflict zones, which may worsen the situation. Regional clashes may also be the reason for the outbreak of a new world war.
Wars, armed forces and armaments
"In 2022, the world came closer to the war of the great powers than at any time since the end of the Cold War" (Robert Farley, security expert). The reasons for the defeats of many countries in wars are not difficult to calculate: poor governance, enemy advantage, domestic political and diplomatic mistakes, intelligence, betrayal and others, but future wars are completely different from the current ones. I believe that the wars of 2030-2050 vary in this way: 1. a real military clash for leadership; 2. biological or geopolitical aggression; 3. cognitive (for delegating national foundations). Attention to the settlement of the factors of war, in the nuclear age, this problem is of particular importance. In 2100, traditional warfare will go beyond its limits, it will include both outer space and cyberspace, a new modification of the armed forces – the widespread use of exoskeletons will allow you to move through difficult terrain.
In this regard, the emergence of superhuman fighters is also possible, due to a technological leap in genetic engineering and biotechnology. Weapons will change dramatically, drones and robots will be used everywhere, making decisions in a split second, adapting to the prevailing circumstances. Autonomous systems will play a crucial role in the conduct of the "war of 2100". AI will give rise to a revolution in the ways of battle. AI-based modules will become excellent forecasters and will provide commanders with expensive information. It will be possible to hit targets with incredible accuracy, reducing the number of civilian casualties. Do not forget about the use of peacekeeping forces in reducing the risk of conflicts involved in the separation of opposing armed forces ("blue paints" is a method of political reconciliation; in honor of the uniform of the UN armed forces).
Consequently, with the development of technology, the conduct of war will move into a new phase and replace the usual actions with the most complex innovations. And the formed IT classes will change the scale of business wars, which will affect the economic stability of the global system. In this environment, it is extremely important for the countries of the world to accept these changes and adapt to them in order to maintain the advantage.
Conclusion
According to the results of the conducted scientific research, the author predicted the future of the global world in 2100, combining completely new world orders and systems in the spheres of globalization, directly affecting not only the terrestrial scale, but also outer space. Due to the leading new integration TNCs and their modernization on a global scale, the subsystems will change radically.
The international cooperation of the countries forms a coalition to achieve the "space goal", contributing to the global development of new corporations. The widespread introduction of AI in global studies will improve the management apparatus and technological capabilities. At the same time, the limits of biological evolution have been exhausted by the formation of information-intelligent organisms in the world, which significantly transforms the armament of countries and the conduct of war. Local processes will be connected to the database of global systems with the same dynamism as in the economic balance.
The patterns of international business development will be based on investments by economic elites in AI and innovations in bioengineering, while new coalitions and players will enter the global platform.
The trajectory of space exploration is primarily based on the development of technological progress in the international arena. The use of cybernetics to improve intelligent systems and the 5G network will lead to a new look at outer space, which will help to present the space environment as a single asset of humanity and a global platform.
The emergence of new information waves of the established paradigm in space exploration in 2100 will be a breakthrough in the scientific field. Human civilization is moving to the stage of dividing business intelligence in the position of a "space race". The crisis of complexity can be overcome only by the integrity of the world, its unity.