Author: САМАРАЙ АЛЕКСАНДРА АНДРЕЕВНА / САМАРАЙ АЛЕКСАНДРА АНДРЕЕВНА
Preface by the author
Since childhood, we have been studying history. The basics of history begin to be taught from the lower grades, and then its study continues in higher and secondary educational institutions in the course of general education disciplines. We are told that it is necessary to know the history of the development of our country in order not to make mistakes of the past, and also so that children grow up in the spirit of patriotism. We study the events that have occurred, evaluate them, and even consider them in the subjunctive mood. Yes, of course, the importance of history is invaluable. And what about our future? As a rule, the future of the planet as a whole seems to us to be something sometimes frightening, distant, "foggy" and not concerning us. People prefer to live for today, use resources and not think about what will remain after them. But in order not to have to study the mistakes of past events over the years, it is important to look into the future of humanity and coordinate our actions today with our goals for the future.
Conduction
It is no secret that the world is changing rapidly. The acceleration of the pace of scientific and technological development contributes even more to the fact that the duration of innovation cycles is shortened, which means that new technologies appear quite quickly. If 20 years ago we had huge push-button phones, today a lot of additional functions are embedded in one small device. Since the 1980s, due to the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, notable discoveries have been made in the field of information and communication technologies, and biotechnological and nanotechnological revolutions have followed. In addition, the development of cognitive science should be highlighted. The selected technologies are not developing separately, but are closely interconnected, exerting an increased influence on each other. This phenomenon has been called NBIC convergence, and it is thanks to this phenomenon that in the future there will be an opportunity for qualitative growth of human capabilities due to its technological restructuring.
New technologies have an impact on all spheres of a person's life – his mentality, lifestyle, needs, etc. are changing. Production methods and the economy as a whole are developing. If we turn to history, we will see that depending on the forms of ownership, ways of allocating resources and methods of regulating the economy, there are four economic systems – traditional, market, command and mixed. These economic systems show how people are based on the knowledge, resources, etc. available at that time. we tried to organize the most efficient way of production, to create an ideal model for the balanced development of all processes. At the present stage of economic development, most countries belong to a mixed economic system, which takes into account the omissions of other types of systems and uses many different tools for regulation. However, there is no doubt that the changes taking place will have a significant impact on the future economy of 2100. The development of NBIC convergence and the emergence of new technologies will have a noticeable impact on production methods and resource allocation. The history of economic theory shows that economic schools defined different resources as the main factors of production: mercantilists – money, physiocrats – land, and the development of the information age contributed to the allocation of information. The future economy of 2100 will be dominated by new factors of production, methods of production, instruments of economic regulation, which will have an impact on the life of all mankind. Based on the existing trends, we will try to look into the economy of 2100 and present our view on economic development in the future.
The main part
If we consider the existing forecasts of the economy of the future, we will be able to identify two opposite forecasts – pessimistic and optimistic. So, Kunstler James Howard believes that in the future fuel reserves will run out, the climate will change and other catastrophes will break out, which will lead to a struggle for resources, for survival and will greatly roll back the standard of living in past periods. So, in order not to die, people will have to go back to their roots and start farming, switch from a car to a horse. Howard assumes that people will live like American Mennonites – Amish, who have completely abandoned high-tech equipment, cars, electricity.
Other researchers believe that in the future, thanks to the use of new intellectual, innovative technologies, people will be able to reach such a high level that they will be able to solve all pressing problems and ensure a high standard of living. Let's consider the existing trends in the development of humanity today, which in our opinion will have an impact on the economy of the future and present our vision of the economy on the horizon of 2100.
The very first thing to note when forming a forecast of the future economy is that the population of the planet Earth is increasing. According to the average version of the forecast, according to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the population will reach 11 billion 184 million people by 2100 [5]. Thus, the load on the planet will increase, as well as the needs of the population will increase, and the resources of the planet will practically run out, so people will have to adapt, look for new raw materials, ways to survive and feed themselves. The main task of the economy is to meet the unlimited needs of the population with the help of limited resources, so naturally the economy of the future will have to solve this issue in more difficult conditions.
In 2000-2010, greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.2% per year. In 1970-2000, the growth was 1.3% per year. From which it follows that the estimated increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 will be 10.3%, which will entail terrible consequences.
The ambient temperature will become more unpredictable. The frequency of frosts, abnormally hot days and thaws in winter will increase. Which can lead to abnormal phenomena, for example, floods and droughts. Due to the increase in temperature, the area of deserts will increase, and therefore unfavorable conditions for many people, plants and animals will follow. As a result, many territories may become uninhabitable.
Countries with arid climates will suffer the most. Which can lead to political disputes over every piece of fresh water. Under these circumstances, the migration of insects and animals will increase. Which will lead to an aggravation of the epidemiological situation.
Excessive consumption of the planet's resources can lead to irreversible consequences. To date, manufacturers, in their attempts to keep up with fashion trends and profits, do not notice the enormous damage to world resources, which in the future can lead to irreversible damage to the economy of not only one city, but also the region, the state, and the whole world. After all, everything is interconnected. Thus, humanity needs to treat more rationally both the issue of production (use of resources), consumption, use and recycling of waste.
Consumers themselves do not even ask themselves questions – "Why do I need this or that thing". Because of ignorance of possible problems, people live and do not even think about the near future. After all, this future may be a wonderful century without any problems, but it can also become a very difficult and critical period in all spheres of the economy. The most dangerous attitudes of humanity are "I don't see any problems, so there are none", "I don't influence anything" and "Everyone does it that way".
Depletion of natural resources as a result of their excessive extraction, emissions of smoke, industrial dust and various toxins into the environment can lead to deterioration of human health, and excessive contamination of the planet Earth with waste from production and consumption of world resources will lead to irreversible consequences. It is important to prevent our planet from turning into a huge garbage dump. At the moment, the problems of pollution of the planet are dealt with only in developed countries, and developing countries compete with each other in the struggle for market indicators and prefer not to think about this problem.
Having analyzed the dynamics of the development of robotics, we can assume that in the near future we will have a lot of new discoveries in this field. For example, in 2015, the Russian startup Apis Cor made a splash – printed a whole house in the Moscow region while avoiding a large amount of material costs. It is also likely that in the near or distant future robots specializing in working with useful resources will be developed or put into use, for example: a robot for planting and watering trees and plants, a robot for restoring resources, and so on. And they will also be able to replace the service and production sectors, which is gradually happening. Nanorobots, in turn, can help in other areas in the future, such as medicine, working with macro objects, etc.
The history of human development is characterized by a constant great struggle of countries for world domination and resources, therefore, in order to prevent aggressive wars in the future, it is advisable to use NBIC convergence technologies and artificial intelligence to solve a number of problems. Artificial intelligence can analyze the dynamics of consumption of the planet's resources and propose measures to prevent, save or improve extraction without loss of useful resources. With the help of artificial intelligence, it is possible to facilitate the search and control of new deposits and useful resources of the earth. It will help in absolutely all areas, especially in analytics, forecasting and training.
Exoskeleton and cyborgization can increase the level of safety of employees of mining companies and increase the quality of research of mineral deposits. Minimizes the cost of heavy machinery and fuel. It will reduce the burden on the environment. This type of equipment can help people with disorders of the musculoskeletal system, it will help them find employment.
Another direction that is likely to be relevant in the future is the synthesis of food. This direction will reduce the consumption of food resources and the costs of their production and cultivation, as well as help people with any pronounced problems in the digestive system, allergies, lactose intolerance, diabetes, etc.
The changes that are expected in various sectors of the economy will naturally have an increase in the requirements for the level of qualification of employees. According to the Atlas of Professions, social and technological processes have an impact on the labor market and lead to its changes. So, by 2030, more than 57 professions will disappear,3 but about 186 new ones will appear. These new professions will be closely connected with the development and application of modern technologies. So, in the economy of the future, such specialists as an agro-cyberneticist, a designer of medical robots, a recycling technologist, an engineer of robotic systems, etc. will be required. Knowledge is becoming the most important factor for humanity. Education is one of the most important areas that will develop in the future and cover various areas and skills of applying new technologies. For example, virtual reality can replace many processes of training and retraining of specialists, thereby improving and simplifying this process. For example, doctors can use it to study the structure of the entire human body and visually view the operations.
As a result of the above trends, the type of human thinking is changing and, accordingly, cardinal changes of our entire planet will be based on this new type of thinking.
So, in our opinion, the main form of interaction should be cooperation and cooperation in various fields. This movement will reduce the race in the production of identical products, thereby reducing the number of destroyed goods. With the help of the partnership, the quality will increase and the production of unnecessary products will decrease. Diversity will also increase, and the main focus will shift from quantity to quality and the introduction of lean manufacturing.
Corruption should be noted as a separate point that has an impact on the economies of countries. Corruption affects not only the economy, but also the quality of work. The main goal of people in high positions should not be to receive money, but sincere service to all mankind. You can give an example of road work, do it qualitatively for decades, or do it annually and spend a huge amount of resources, time and money. In this matter, cooperation between humans and artificial intelligence can also become significant, which will allow you to track not only where resources are spent, but also how well it is done.
On the world stage, when making various kinds of decisions between countries, political goals take precedence over the economy, which is not always advisable. In the economy of the future, humanity will have to think about the rationality of certain decisions and make them based on common goals
Medicine, as well as other sciences, is developing at a furious pace. New medicines and technologies are being created to help in the correct diagnosis and treatment of patients. For example, we can cite a huge leap in the fight against cancer. From radiation therapy in the late 19th century to cell therapy in the 21st century.
Given the progress in the development of medical sciences, it can be assumed that if we do not become immortal by 2100, we will most likely be able to achieve an increase in human life expectancy. Questions of immortality and eternal youth have worried mankind since ancient times. People were looking for sources of youth, used various magical rituals, etc. But it is precisely in modern conditions that new technologies are emerging and so much knowledge has been accumulated that will most likely solve a number of issues in this direction. There are already many cosmetic ways to slow down skin aging. Most likely, in the near future, medical methods will be developed to slow down aging not only externally, but also in the body itself. There are several possible ways to slow down or completely stop aging, such as genetic engineering, regenerative medicine, nano medicine, cyborgization, artificial intelligence, digital immortality, cryonics.
The analysis allows us to draw the following conclusions: 1. The economy of the future will be aimed at meeting the growing needs of people, improving the quality of life, fighting various diseases and slowing down aging, reducing poverty and unemployment. 2. Knowledge will become the main factor of production and ensuring economic growth. But not just knowledge, but their convergence in various fields and directions. The development of the phenomenon of NBIC convergence will solve many problems of humanity. 3. Globalization and cooperation. 4. Anti-corruption. 5. The use of artificial intelligence to provide management solutions.
Conclusion
A man from a long time ago was trying to find out his future. To do this, he turned to clairvoyants, the stars and compiled horoscopes, etc. However, today a person has all the necessary resources, tools and knowledge in his arsenal to make forecasts and determine future problems. Often people say: "Forecasting is a thankless task," however, in our opinion, it is thanks to making forecasts that it is possible to predict future difficulties and avoid them without much loss. In the treatise "The Sovereign" Niccolo Machiavelli writes: "The same thing happens here as with consumption: doctors say that in the beginning this disease is difficult to recognize, but easy to cure; if it is started, it is easy to recognize, but difficult to cure. It is the same in the affairs of the state: if a nascent disease is detected in a timely manner, which is given only to wise rulers, then it is not difficult to get rid of it, but if it is launched in such a way that everyone can see, then no drug will help anymore." Therefore, it is necessary to use all available opportunities in order to ensure a decent life for future generations thanks to the economy of the future.
For humanity as a whole, the main goal should not be to make a profit, to fight for resources, but to preserve the planet Earth for future generations, so that all the way humanity has done, the knowledge gained will not be lost. There is a parable about a butterfly in his hands, where a student who has a butterfly in his hands asks the Master what kind of butterfly he has in his hands: alive or dead. To which the Master replies that everything is in his hands. Thus, despite the forecasts and the problems that exist today, the future of humanity is in our hands. So let's do everything so that it will serve as a home for all mankind for many years to come.
List of sources used:
1. Assessment (forecast) Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations on July 1, 2015-2100: Total Population — Both Sexes. De facto population in a country, area or region as of 1 July of the year indicated. Figures are presented in thousands: [Electronic resource]: - Link: https://population.un.org/wpp/
2. Pride, V. The phenomenon of NBIC convergence: Reality and expectations [Text] / V. Pride, D. A. Medvedev // Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation; Academy of Humanitarian Studies. Philosophical Sciences - 2008.- No. 1.- pp. 97-116.
3. Kunstler J. What awaits us when oil runs out, the climate changes and other catastrophes of the XXI century break out https://royallib.com/read/kunstler_dgeyms/chto_nas_gdet_kogda_zakonchitsya_neft_izmenitsya_klimat_i_razrazyatsya_drugie_katastrofi.html#0