Author: КОЗЛОВА ДИАНА АЛЕКСАНДРОВНА / KOZLOVA DIANA ALEXANDROVNA
In the modern world, the population is constantly growing, states contribute to the growth of the birth rate, while thinking about the problem of depletion of natural resources. At the moment, according to the UN press service, the number of people on Earth has reached 8 billion and, despite scientific and technological progress, issues with the depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution still remain open. Today, the problem of limited resources of the Earth is one of the most urgent, because the number of people in the future will also continue to grow, and the amount of oxygen, flora and fauna, oil and gas sources will decrease. Almost half of the forests that previously covered our planet have already been destroyed, groundwater is being depleted at a high rate, and biodiversity continues to disappear. If this trend continues, the planet will not cope with such a load and humanity will no longer be able to continue its life. Therefore, the works of scientists are now considering different options for the continuation of human life, one of which is the colonization of a new planet, namely Mars.
The purpose of the study is to find out whether it is possible to continue life on planet Earth until 2100 and whether there is a chance that one day people will be able to move to Mars.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
- study data on the amount of natural resources
- view scientists' forecasts about the volume of natural resources by 2050 and 2100 on Earth
- determine the amount of resources on the planet Mars
- to draw conclusions about the possibility of moving people to another planet and how to move them
The problem of population growth with limited resources attracts more and more attention of scientists and the public.
Currently, for the development of industry and agricultural production, it is impossible to do without the extraction of natural resources. Industries such as energy, non-ferrous metallurgy, oil refining, pulp and paper industry have a negative impact on the atmosphere, land resources and external waters of States. Therefore, society and states need to pay great attention to the environmental situation[1].
To estimate the amount of natural resources, we will use the data on the resource availability of countries for 2021. (Appendix 1)
At the moment, there are 3 groups: with rich, medium and specialized stocks. Where the first group includes Russia, the United States and China, the latter includes countries with the same type of resources, that is, the countries of the Persian Gulf. Resource availability implies a ratio between the size of reserves and the scale of their use and is expressed by the number of years for which the extracted resources will last with their modern use.
In 2010, Russia's oil reserves exceeded 28 billion tons. Now — a little more than 19. Six years ago, gas reserves were estimated at 70 trillion cubic meters. Now it is 49.2. Rosgeologia estimates that gas will last for 70 years, and oil for 30 years. Perhaps, with the development of technologies for the development of hard-to-recover resources, the term of use of mineral resources will increase, but with a continuous population growth of only a few decades.
Director of the Research Institute of Roshydromet, draws attention to the fact that the last 5 years there have been abnormally warm winters in the Arctic. The area of ice in the spring, when their number is maximum, and in the period from August to September, when the ice fields are actively melting, has decreased by about 10% compared to the XX century.
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Deputy Chairman of the Scientific and Analytical Center of the Union of Power Engineers of Moldova V. V. Ponomar in the book "The Apocalypse as a consequence of globalization" claims that the only cause of global warming, violations of the mechanisms of stabilization of the planet's climate, strengthening of hurricanes, floods, droughts and earthquakes is the global depletion of the ozone layer due to flights of supersonic aircraft and rocket launches[2].
According to WWF Russia, there is now a simultaneous warming of all oceans, an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and its isotopic composition, cooling of the upper atmosphere – the stratosphere with warming of the surface layer of air. This is due to the fact that man has increased the greenhouse effect, primarily by burning coal, petroleum products and gas[3].
Based on the examples above, we can conclude that resources are being depleted every day, and according to scientists' forecasts, by 2100, the problem of resource depletion will not allow countries to continue living on planet Earth.
In search of a solution to this problem, scientists faced the question of colonization of the planets of the Solar System and Mars turned out to be the most suitable planet for life. To begin with, we suggest considering the possibility of life on the planet Mars.
Scientists who sent the Curiosity rover to an unexplored planet to search for traces of past life. There was too little carbon-13 in the organic samples collected in the area of the ancient lake. This phenomenon has become a strong argument in favor of the fact that the substance was processed by living organisms. Researchers believe that rocks that have been in constant contact with water are capable of producing chemical energy that is needed to maintain microbial communities, as it happens on Earth.
It is still unknown for sure whether there was life under the surface of Mars, but the researchers note that if this were the case, then there is enough energy on the neighboring planet to support it until today.
The chief engineer of SpaceX, Elon Musk, considers the planet Mars to be the most convenient neighbor of the Earth for settlement, the distance between them is 225.3 million kilometers.
This arrangement allows us to get the right amount of sunlight for us. The atmosphere of Mars has nitrogen, carbon dioxide, argon and some other trace elements, which may allow the planet to be planted with useful crops. The duration of daylight on Mars is 24 hours and 37 minutes, which also allows a person to live there, and gravity on this planet is 2.6 times weaker than Earth's, which will make it easy to lift heavy objects.
But there are also disadvantages to this idea of relocation, and very significant ones. Firstly, in history, no one has ever attempted to colonize the planets of the Solar System, namely, to move away to such a huge distance from Earth. Secondly, people have never lived even in Antarctica or under the earth's seas, and in this case they will have to live on a completely new unexplored planet. Thirdly, the outcome of the economy is unknown, what people should do, what will become the basis of the economy. And the most important thing is how people will endure a flight of such length. Since the distance from Mars to Earth is a variable value, only once every 26 months the two planets become closest to each other, and once every 15-17 years there is a great confrontation when the planets are closest to each other. And even then the distance is 401 million kilometers, respectively, the flight to Mars on a spacecraft will take about 250-300 days, that is, about a year, which is psychologically difficult for a person [4].
There is also the question of how billions of people will be moved to another planet, but most likely this is impossible. By 2050, Elon Musk plans to send a million people to Mars with the help of three rockets that will be launched every day.
In the next 10 years, Elon Musk plans to build 1,000 reusable spaceships, now they are already in development at the company's plant in Texas. It is assumed that the ship will be able to simultaneously accommodate up to 100 people and up to 100 tons of cargo, including building materials, food and water.
Summing up all of the above, we come to the conclusion that due to the depletion of mineral raw materials, atmospheric pollution, climate change, there is an urgent need to look for solutions in order to continue the life of mankind in the future. Colonization of Mars may become one of the options for human survival, although so far many questions remain open and it is not known whether it is possible to live on this planet for a long time. There has been no experience of colonization in history, so it will not be easy to implement it, the first steps towards the resettlement of people to a new planet have already begun and most likely some people will be able to form a life there. The planet Mars has trace elements necessary for human life, the distance between the planets is quite possible to overcome, so by 2100 people will probably be able to realize the idea of moving to Mars in case it is impossible to continue living on Earth.
List of literature.
1. Internet resource. Access mode: https://geographyofrussia.com/ekonomicheskaya-ocenka-prirodnyx-resursov-mira /.
2. Ponomar V.V. "On the mechanism of climate change and the intensification of anomalous and catastrophic weather manifestations due to depletion of the ozone layer". Bulletin of the Pridnestrovian University. N1 (15). 2002. pp.141-150.
3. Internet resource. Access mode: https://wwf.ru/what-we-do/climate-and-energy/faq /.
4. Internet resource. Access mode: https://m.lenta.ru/brief/2022/03/21/to_the_mars/amp /.
Appendix 1